Calexit: The Secession of California

What Is Calexit: The Secession of California?

"Calexit" refers to the secession of California from the United States, after which it would become an independent country. The word is a portmanteau meaning "California exit," which is based on similar coinages such as Grexit and Brexit. The term came to the foreground in the wake of Donald Trump's victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election — Hillary Clinton won the state of California with 61% of the vote — though it is not the state's first independence movement.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll published in January 2017 showed 32% of Californians supporting Calexit, up from 20% in 2014. After that poll was published, a different Berkeley IGS Poll released in March 2017 found Californians opposed a "Calexit" by more than 2-to-1.

Calexit is being spearheaded by Yes California, which describes itself as "the nonviolent campaign to establish the country of California using any and all legal and constitutional means to do so." The campaign planned to place an initiative on the 2019 state ballot, which ultimately failed. Once again, on Sept. 10, 2020, a new effort to collect petition signatures for California's secession was once again renewed.

Understanding Calexit: The Secession of California

Present-day California formed part of the Mexican province of Alta California until the outbreak of the Mexican-American War in May 1846. The next month, 30 American settlers seized a Mexican garrison in Sonoma and declared an independent republic. An updated form of their flag emblazoned "California Republic" is currently the flag of the state. The republic never performed any administrative functions as a government and lasted less than a month before U.S. Navy Lieutenant Joseph Revere landed at Sonoma and raised a Union flag. 

Present-day arguments for California sovereignty center on the state's large population and economic power. At $3.13 trillion, California's gross domestic product (GDP) was larger than France's ($2.72 trillion) in 2019, the last full year for which data is available. Using World Bank figures, California would be the world's fifth-largest economy between Germany and the United Kingdom, if it were an independent country. The state was home to 39.5 million people as of most recent data on July 2019, according to the Census Bureau. Cultural issues, while more muted, have featured in independence rhetoric, particularly as they relate to environmental issues.

California GDP vs Other Nations, 2019

Yes California

Yes California was known as Sovereign California until the summer of 2015 when its leader, New York-born Louis Marinelli, submitted an initiative to the California Attorney General calling for an independence referendum in November 2020 and every four years from then on. That document compared California's incorporation into the Union to the U.S.'s annexation of the Kingdom of Hawaii in 1898. After the controversy surrounding Marinelli's residence in Russia while running the Yes California organization, Marcus Ruiz Evans took over as the president of the organization.

According to its website, Yes California summarizes its primary reasons for wanting California to be an independent country with the following three reasons:

1. California is a distinct society with its own unique history and culture.
2. California as the world’s fifth-largest economy has what it takes to be its own country.
3. The best people to govern California are the people of California.

Requirements of Calexit

Since its rebranding, the organization has changed tack and dropped the "military annexation" argument. In a pamphlet posted to its website, the group argues that "California could do more good as an independent country than it is able to do as a just a U.S. state" and enumerates nine areas in which California would be better off as an independent country:

Is Secession Legal?

The U.S. Constitution does not directly address the issue of secession; Article IV limits itself to the accession of new states and the division or fusion of existing states. The beginning of the document contains the phrase, "in order to form a more perfect Union," which is often interpreted to mean a "more perfect Union" than the "perpetual Union" described in the Articles of Confederation.

There are two major precedents for territorial secession in U.S. history, the first beginning with the American colonies themselves declaring independence from Britain. The Declaration of Independence frames its arguments in terms of universal rights, rather than British law. In practice, the colonies won their independence through war.

The second is the secession of the Southern states in 1861, which sparked the Civil War. The Confederacy was defeated on the battlefield, rather than the courts, although subsequent legal issues created by the attempt at independence led the courts to express an opinion on the legality of secession. In Texas v. White, a dispute over a bond sale by the Confederate States, the Supreme Court ruled in 1869 that Texas' secession had not been legal. According to the majority opinion, entry into the Union formed "an indissoluble relation"; it was "final," "perpetual," and left "no place for reconsideration or revocation, except through revolution or through the consent of the States."

In other words, the Supreme Court appears to recognize the legitimacy of independence through armed struggle, although that hardly matters; the outcome of the war is the deciding factor regardless of a court's opinion.

Current Day Secession

Nor does it matter for Yes California, which is avowedly nonviolent. The "consent of the States" provides an opening, however, according to Marinelli. In a blog post from March 2016, he interprets the Supreme Court's opinion to mean that California can propose a constitutional amendment allowing it to secede. If that is approved by two-thirds of both houses of Congress, and 38 states ratify it, California can become independent. Alternatively, two-thirds of the delegates of a constitutional convention could approve the amendment, which would then have to be ratified by 38 states. 

Whether that interpretation passes legal muster is uncertain. In any case, it is a long shot to get two-thirds of the House and Senate – not to mention legislatures from two-thirds of the states – to agree on anything, particularly the secession of the country's largest state, economically speaking. Many analysts deem California's secession and highly improbable.

On Sept. 10, 2020, a new effort by Yes California to collect petition signatures for California's secession was renewed.

Giving It a Go

Undaunted, Yes California submitted a proposed ballot measure to the California attorney general's office on Nov. 21, 2016, hoping to get an independent vote on the ballot in 2019. The measure would repeal Article III, Section 1 of California's constitution ("The State of California is an inseparable part of the United States of America, and the United States Constitution is the supreme law of the land") and pose the question to voters, "Should California become a free, sovereign, and independent country?" According to the proposed ballot measure, 50% of registered voters will need to turn out for it to be valid, and 55% will have to mark "yes."

Ultimately, the initiative failed. However, on Sept. 10, 2020, Yes California initiated a new effort to collect petition signatures for California's secession, which was approved by the Secretary of State.

Can California Legally Secede From the Union?

California can legally secede from the United States if at least 50% of registered voters in California participated and at least 55% percent voted "yes" to secede, and then if two-thirds of both houses of Congress and 38 states ratify it. Then, the governor of California would have been required to write to the United Nations to request its membership as a nation.

Can a City Secede From a State?

Although it has never happened, some law experts say that under Article IV, Section III of the U.S. Constitution, a city could petition to secede from a state, with the necessary votes from Congress.

What if California Was a Country?

Many believe that California's strong economy would allow it to stand alone as a country. Using World Bank figures, California would be the world's fifth-largest economy between Germany and the United Kingdom, if it were an independent country.

What Did the Calexit Poll Show?

In what is referred to as the "Calexit poll," a Reuters/Ipsos poll published in January 2017 showed 32% of Californians supporting Calexit, up from 20% in 2014.

The Bottom Line

There have been hundreds of attempts for California to secede from the United States, all with very little possibility of succeeding. Yes California is only the latest organization to spearhead "Calexit." With this new effort approved in Sept. 2020, only time will tell if the organization is able to collect enough signatures to make it onto the ballot.